George Lee's blog

好久沒看到這種景象了。大跌不怎麼令人意外，但是高達 157 點的逆價差卻著實不常見。在期貨市場的賣聲隆隆之中，也讓人再次見識到市場激情的特色。

雖然最近忙到翻掉，但是看到這麼戲劇性的東西，還是要寫一下當紀念的 :p

就在 Steve Ballmer 說微軟決定撤回對 Yahoo 的併購案之後，今晚 Carl Icahn 對 Yahoo 董事會開砲了，發表了一封公開信。這位老兄好怒啊。他形容雅虎董事會

「躲在管理階層過度樂觀的財務預測後面，十分不負責任。」

他也說，

「微軟的提案十分慷慨，對雅虎的估價比公開求婚的前一天還要高出 72%。拒絕這個提議顯然是非常不理智的。」

實力雄厚的 Carl Icahn，除了開罵以外，也擺明他不是只有一張嘴而已。公開信中聲稱，他已經花了十三億美金買了雅虎五千九百萬股 (大約佔雅虎 4% 股權)。而且他正在向美國聯邦交易委員會提出申請，希望得到反托拉斯的許可，以便買下價值二十五億美金的雅虎股權 (大約 8% 左右)。

Icahn 表示不只贊成微軟的購併案，而且也打算提案撤換雅虎的董事會 - 他已經公開提了一個十人名單，希望能夠在七月三號的雅虎股東年會上面，取得多數董事席位。十人都是赫赫有名，除了他自己以外，還包括：

• 網路創業傳奇人物 Mark Cuban
• Viacom 創辦人 Frank Biondi Jr.
• New Line Cenima 的 CEO Robert Shaye
• 創投家 Adam Dell。啥？你不認識他？那你至少該認得他哥哥 Michael Dell 吧？

Carl Icahn 這些舉動的背後，和微軟的 Steve Ballmer 有沒有什麼默契或是私下的合作，是很耐人尋味的。不過這是楊致遠和雅虎董事會要擔心的事情了。我們只要負責看連續劇看不到的好戲就好了啊！ XD

話說回來，楊致遠接任 CEO 以後，風波總是不斷。他能夠有時間精力來做好公司重整的工作嗎？我很懷疑。光是應付微軟大巨獸想必就已經筋疲力竭了。現在又來一個 Carl Icahn，恐怕難得有一夜好眠了...

[註] Carl Icahn 是具有傳奇色彩的投資人。他以爭取股東權益聞名，令許多上市公司老闆聞之色變。最近的事蹟是投資摩托羅拉事件。他所投資的公司，通常伴隨著大規模的重整，包括經營階層的重新洗牌與裁員。
[註二] 公開信的全文在這裡可以看到。我照引如下：

SECURITY HOLDERS ARE ADVISED TO READ THE PROXY STATEMENT AND OTHER DOCUMENTS RELATED TO THE SOLICITATION OF PROXIES BY Carl C. Icahn AND HIS AFFILIATES FROM THE STOCKHOLDERS OF YAHOO! INC. FOR USE AT ITS ANNUAL MEETING, WHEN AND IF THEY BECOME AVAILABLE, BECAUSE THEY WILL CONTAIN IMPORTANT INFORMATION, INCLUDING INFORMATION RELATING TO THE PARTICIPANTS IN ANY SUCH PROXY SOLICITATION. WHEN AND IF COMPLETED, A DEFINITIVE PROXY STATEMENT AND A FORM OF PROXY WILL BE MAILED TO STOCKHOLDERS OF YAHOO! INC. AND WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT NO CHARGE AT THE SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION'S WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.SEC.GOV. INFORMATION RELATING TO THE POTENTIAL PARTICIPANTS IN A POTENTIAL PROXY SOLICITATION IS CONTAINED IN EXHIBIT 1 TO THE SCHEDULE 14A BEING FILED TODAY WITH THE SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION.

                                Carl C. Icahn
                           ICAHN CAPITAL LP
                     767 Fifth Avenue, 47th Floor
                          New York, NY 10153

May 15, 2008

Roy Bostock
Chairman
Yahoo! Inc.
701 First Avenue
Sunnyvale, CA 94089

Dear Mr. Bostock:

It is clear to me that the board of directors of Yahoo has acted irrationally and lost the faith of shareholders and Microsoft. It is quite obvious that Microsoft's bid of $33 per share is a superior alternative to Yahoo's prospects on a standalone basis. I am perplexed by the board's actions. It is irresponsible to hide behind management's more than overly optimistic financial forecasts. It is unconscionable that you have not allowed your shareholders to choose to accept an offer that represented a 72% premium over Yahoo's closing price of $19.18 on the day before the initial Microsoft offer. I and many of your shareholders strongly believe that a combination between Yahoo and Microsoft would form a dynamic company and more importantly would be a force strong enough to compete with Google on the Internet.

During the past week, a number of shareholders have asked me to lead a proxy fight to attempt to remove the current board and to establish a new board which would attempt to negotiate a successful merger with Microsoft, something that in my opinion the current board has completely botched. I believe that a combination between Microsoft and Yahoo is by far the most sensible path for both companies. I have therefore taken the following actions: (1) during the last 10 days, I have purchased approximately 59 million shares and share-equivalents of Yahoo; (2) I have formed a 10-person slate which will stand for election against the current board; and (3) I have sought antitrust clearance from the Federal Trade Commission to acquire up to approximately $2.5 billion worth of Yahoo stock. The biographies of the members of our slate are attached to this letter. A more formal notification is being delivered today to Yahoo under separate cover.

While it is my understanding that you do not intend to enter into any transaction that would impede a Microsoft-Yahoo merger, I am concerned that in several recent press releases you stated that you intend to pursue certain "strategic alternatives". I therefore hope and trust that if there is any question that these "strategic alternatives" might in any way impede a future Microsoft merger you will at the very least allow shareholders to opine on them before embarking on such a transaction.

I sincerely hope you heed the wishes of your shareholders and move expeditiously to negotiate a merger with Microsoft, thereby making a proxy fight unnecessary.

    Sincerely yours,

CARL C. ICAHN

                          SLATE BIOGRAPHIES

Lucian A. Bebchuk

Lucian Bebchuk is the William J. Friedman and Alicia Townsend Friedman Professor of Law, Economics, and Finance and Director of the Program on Corporate Governance at Harvard Law School. Bebchuk is also a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research and Inaugural Fellow of the European Corporate Governance Network. Trained in both law and economics, Bebchuk holds an LL.M. and S.J.D. from Harvard Law School and an M.A. and Ph.D in Economics from the Harvard Economics Department. He joined the Harvard Law School faculty in 1986 as an assistant professor, becoming a full professor in 1988, and the Friedman Professor of Law, Economics and Finance in 1998. Bebchuk has written extensively on corporate governance, corporate control, and corporate transactions. He has published more than seventy research articles in academic journals in law, economics, and finance. Upon electing him to membership in 2000, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences cited him as "[o]ne of the nation's leading scholars of law and economics," who "has made major contribution to the study of corporate control, governance, and insolvency." He is the 2007-2008 President of the American Law and Economics Association, and a former chair of the Business Association Section of the American Association of Law Teachers. Bebchuk's recent writings include Pay without Performance: the Unfulfilled Promise of Executive Compensation (Harvard University Press, 2004, co-authored with Jesse Fried), "The Case for Increasing Shareholder Power" (Harvard Law Review, 2005), "The Costs of Entrenched Boards" (Journal of Financial Economics, 2005, co-authored with Alma Cohen), and "The Myth of the Shareholder Franchise" (Virginia Law Review, 2007). Bebchuk has been a frequent contributor to policy making and public discourse in the corporate governance area. He has appeared before the Senate Finance Committee, the House Committee of Financial Services, and the SEC. He has published many op-ed pieces, including in the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, and the Financial Times. He was included in the list of "100 most influential people in finance" of Treasury & Risk Management and the list of "100 most influential players in corporate governance" of Directorship magazine.

Frank J. Biondi, Jr.

Since March 1999, Mr. Biondi has served as Senior Managing Director of WaterView Advisors LLC, an investment advisor organization. From April 1996 to November 1998, Mr. Biondi served as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Universal Studios, Inc. From July 1987 to January 1996, Mr. Biondi served as President and Chief Executive Officer of Viacom, Inc. Mr. Biondi is a director of Amgen Inc., Cablevision Systems Corp., Hasbro, Inc., The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation and Seagate Technology. Mr. Biondi is a graduate of Princeton University and earned a Masters of Business Administration from Harvard University.

John H. Chapple

John Chapple is President of Hawkeye Investments LLC, a privately-owned equity firm investing primarily in telecommunications and real estate ventures frequently working in conjunction with Rally Capital LLC. Prior to forming Hawkeye, John Chapple worked to organize Nextel Partners, a provider of digital wireless services in mid-size and smaller markets throughout the U.S. He became the President, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board of Nextel Partners and its subsidiaries in August of 1998. Nextel Partners went public in February 2000 and was traded on the NASDAQ Exchange. In June 2006, the company was purchased by Sprint Communications. From 1995 to 1997, Mr. Chapple was the President and Chief Operating Officer for Orca Bay Sports and Entertainment in Vancouver, B.C. During Mr. Chapple's tenure, Orca Bay owned and operated Vancouver's National Basketball Association and National Hockey League sports franchises in addition to the General Motors Place sports arena and retail interests. From 1988 to 1995, he served as Executive Vice President of Operations for McCaw Cellular Communications and subsequently AT&T Wireless Services following the merger of those companies. From 1978 to 1983, he served on the senior management team of Rogers Cablesystems before moving to American Cablesystems as Senior Vice President of Operations from 1983 to 1988. Mr. Chapple, a graduate of Syracuse University and Harvard University's Advanced Management Program, has 26 years of experience in the cable television and wireless communications industries. Mr. Chapple is the past Chairman of Cellular One Group and CTIA-The Wireless Association, past Vice-Chairman of the Cellular Telecommunications Industry Association and has been on the Board of Governors of the NHL and NBA. Mr. Chapple serves on the Syracuse University Board of Trustees currently as Chairman and the Advisory Board for the Maxwell School of Syracuse University. He is also on the Board of Directors of Cbeyond, Inc., a publicly traded Atlanta-based integrated service telephony company; Seamobile Enterprises, a privately held company providing integrated wireless services at sea; Telesphere, a privately held VOIP (voice over internet protocol) company based in Phoenix, Arizona; and on the advisory boards of Diamond Castle Holdings, LLC, a private equity firm based in New York City and the Daniel J. Evans School of Public Affairs at University of Washington.

Mark Cuban

Since early 2000, Mr. Cuban has been the majority and controlling owner of the National Basketball Association franchise, the Dallas Mavericks. In 2001, Mr. Cuban co-founded HDNet, an all high-definition television network on DIRECTV that broadcasts high-definition sports, movies and other entertainment. Prior to his purchase of the Dallas Mavericks, Mr. Cuban co- founded Broadcast.com in 1995 and served as its Chairman of the Board until it was sold to Yahoo! in July of 1999. Before Broadcast.com, Mr. Cuban co-founded MicroSolutions, a national systems integrator, in 1983, which was later sold to CompuServe Corporation in 1990. Mr. Cuban is an active investor in cutting- edge technologies and various industries, including the entertainment industry.

Adam Dell

Since January 2000, Mr. Dell has served as the Managing General Partner of Impact Venture Partners, a venture capital firm focused on information technology investments. He also serves as Managing Director at Steelpoint Capital Partners, a private equity firm with offices in New York and California. From October 1998 to January 2000, Mr. Dell was a Senior Associate and subsequently a Partner with Crosspoint Venture Partners in Northern California. From July 1997 to August 1998, he was a Senior Associate with Enterprise Partners in Southern California. From January 1996 to June 1997 Mr. Dell was associated with the law firm of Winstead Sechrest & Minick, in Austin, Texas, where he practiced corporate law. Mr. Dell's investments include: Buzzsaw (which was acquired by Autodesk), HotJobs (which was acquired by Yahoo!) and Connectify (which was acquired by Kana Software). Mr. Dell has been a director of XO Holdings, Inc., a telecommunications services provider, since February 2006, and of its predecessor from January 2003 to February 2006. In addition, Mr. Dell currently serves on the boards of directors of the Santa Fe Institute, MessageOne and OpenTable. He also teaches a course at the Columbia Business School on business, technology and innovation and is a contributing columnist to the technology publication, Business 2.0. Mr. Dell received a J.D. from University of Texas and a B.A. from Tulane University.

Carl C. Icahn

Mr. Icahn has served as chairman of the board and a director of Starfire Holding Corporation, a privately-held holding company, and chairman of the board and a director of various subsidiaries of Starfire, since 1984. Since August 2007, through his position as Chief Executive Officer of Icahn Capital LP, a wholly owned subsidiary of Icahn Enterprises L.P., and certain related entities, Mr. Icahn's principal occupation is managing private investment funds, including Icahn Partners LP, Icahn Partners Master Fund LP, Icahn Partners Master Fund II L.P. and Icahn Partners Master Fund III L.P. Prior to August 2007, Mr. Icahn conducted this occupation through his entities CCI Onshore Corp. and CCI Offshore Corp since September 2004. Since November 1990, Mr. Icahn has been chairman of the board of Icahn Enterprises G.P. Inc., the general partner of Icahn Enterprises L.P. Icahn Enterprises L.P. is a diversified holding company engaged in a variety of businesses, including investment management, metals, real estate and home fashion. Mr. Icahn was chairman of the board and president of Icahn & Co., Inc., a registered broker- dealer and a member of the National Association of Securities Dealers, from 1968 to 2005. Mr. Icahn has served as chairman of the board and as a director of American Railcar Industries, Inc., a company that is primarily engaged in the business of manufacturing covered hopper and tank railcars, since 1994. From October 1998 through May 2004, Mr. Icahn was the president and a director of Stratosphere Corporation, the owner and operator of the Stratosphere Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas, which, until February 2008, was a subsidiary of Icahn Enterprises L.P. From September 2000 to February 2007, Mr. Icahn served as the chairman of the board of GB Holdings, Inc., which owned an interest in Atlantic Coast Holdings, Inc., the owner and operator of The Sands casino in Atlantic City until November 2006. Mr. Icahn has been chairman of the board and a director of XO Holdings, Inc., a telecommunications services provider, since February 2006, and of its predecessor from January 2003 to February 2006. Mr. Icahn has served as a Director of Cadus Corporation, a company engaged in the ownership and licensing of yeast-based drug discovery technologies since July 1993. In May 2005, Mr. Icahn became a director of Blockbuster Inc., a provider of in-home movie rental and game entertainment. In October 2005, Mr. Icahn became a director of WestPoint International, Inc., a manufacturer of bed and bath home fashion products. In September 2006, Mr. Icahn became a director of ImClone Systems Incorporated, a biopharmaceutical company, and since October 2006 has been the chairman of the board of ImClone. In August 2007, Mr. Icahn became a director of WCI Communities, Inc., a homebuilding company, and since September 2007 has been the chairman of the board of WCI. In December 2007, Mr. Icahn became a director of Federal-Mogul Corporation, a supplier of automotive products, and since January 2008 has been the chairman of the board of Federal-Mogul. In April 2008, Mr. Icahn became a director of Motricity, Inc., a privately-held company that provides mobile content services and solutions. Mr. Icahn received his B.A. from Princeton University.

Keith A. Meister

Since March 2006, Keith Meister has served as Principal Executive Officer and Vice Chairman of the Board of Icahn Enterprises G.P. Inc., the general partner of Icahn Enterprises L.P., a diversified holding company engaged in a variety of businesses, including investment management, metals, real estate and home fashion. Since November 2004, Mr. Meister has been a Managing Director of Icahn Capital LP, the entity through which Carl C. Icahn manages third party private investment funds. Since June 2002, Mr. Meister has served as senior investment analyst of High River Limited Partnership, an entity primarily engaged in the business of holding and investing in securities. Mr. Meister also serves on the boards of directors of the following companies: XO Holdings, Inc., a telecommunications company; WCI Communities, Inc., a homebuilding company; Federal-Mogul Corporation, a supplier of automotive products; and Motorola, Inc., a mobile communications company. With respect to each company mentioned above, Carl C. Icahn, directly or indirectly, either (i) controls such company or (ii) has an interest in such company through the ownership of securities. Mr. Meister received an A.B. in government, cum laude, from Harvard College in 1995.

Edward H. Meyer

Mr. Meyer serves as Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Ocean Road Advisors, Inc., an investment management company. From 1970 to 2006, he served as Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President of Grey Global Group, Inc., a multi-billion dollar global advertising and marketing agency. Mr. Meyer serves as a Director of Harman International Industries, Inc., Ethan Allen Interiors, Inc., National CineMedia, Inc. and NRDC Acquisition Corp. Mr. Meyer holds a B.A. in Economics from Cornell University.

Brian S. Posner

Brian S. Posner is a private investor. From 2005 through March 2008, he served as Chief Executive Officer and co-Chief Investment Officer of ClearBridge Advisors LLC (and its predecessor company, CAM North America), an asset management company based in New York with approximately $90 billion in assets and a wholly owned subsidiary of Legg Mason Inc. Prior to ClearBridge Advisors, he was a co-Founder and the Managing Partner of Hygrove Partners LLC, a hedge fund company that was formed in 2000. Prior to ClearBridge Advisors and Hygrove Partners, he served as a Portfolio Manager and an Analyst, first at Fidelity Investments from 1987 to 1996 and then at Warburg Pincus Asset Management/Credit Suisse Asset Management from 1997 to 1999. At Warburg Pincus Asset Management/Credit Suisse Asset Management he was a Managing Director and served as the Senior Investment Manager of the Value Equity Group, co-Portfolio Manager of the Warburg Pincus Growth & Income Fund, and Portfolio Manager of the Warburg Pincus Institutional Value Fund and the Warburg Pincus Trust, Growth and Income Fund. Prior to the acquisition of Warburg Pincus Asset Management ("WPAM") by Credit Suisse Asset Management in July 1999, he was co-Chief Investment Officer, Director of Research, Chairman of the Global Asset Allocation Committee, and a member of the Executive Operating Committee at WPAM. At Fidelity Investments, he was the Portfolio Manager of the Fidelity Equity Income II Fund from 1992 to 1996 and the Fidelity Value Fund from 1990 to 1992. He also managed the Select Life Insurance, Select Property Casualty Insurance and Select Energy Portfolios. From 1987 to 1990, he was an Oil, Insurance, and Financial Services Analyst. From August 2000 to April 2003 he served on the Board of Directors for Sotheby's Holdings, Inc. He currently a member of the Board of Trustees at Northwestern University and the Board of Visitors for the Weinberg College of Arts and Sciences at Northwestern University. Mr. Posner received his undergraduate degree in history from Northwestern University in 1983 and his M.B.A. in finance from the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business in 1987.

Robert K. Shaye

Robert Shaye is Co-Chairman and Co-CEO of New Line Cinema. As the Founder of New Line Cinema and a filmmaker himself, Robert Shaye has spent more than 40 years developing and distributing films that reflect a wide array of cultural movements, creating new paradigms for the motion picture business, and most importantly, entertaining millions of moviegoers. Since he founded New Line in 1967, Shaye has guided the company's growth from a privately-held art film distributor to one of the entertainment industry's leading independent studios and a veritable box office force. He has been involved in such films as The Lord of the Rings trilogy, Rush Hour, Austin Powers and Seven. A University of Michigan graduate with a degree in business administration and a J.D. degree from Columbia University Law School, Shaye is also a Fulbright Scholar, member of the New York State Bar, and serves on the Board of Trustees of the Motion Picture Pioneers, and the American Film Institute.

至少是暫時失望的。

馬英九當選了，股市紅盤慶祝，外資買股瘋狂。翻開報紙，股民一片歡欣雀躍，許多人說，「不怕套牢，反正現在的套不是套，台股要等著上萬點了！」

(假想一下可能的對話...)

真的是這樣嗎？為什麼台股要上萬點了？

「因為兩岸要三通了啊。」

那為什麼三通以後，台股就會上萬點？

「你好笨喔，我跟你說啦，等我們跟大陸三通以後，大陸的觀光客都會來，然後台灣的企業都可以過去投資，對台灣當然是好的啦。台灣大賺其錢以後，台股不上萬點也難哪！」

那為什麼大陸願意跟我們三通？就算是三通以後，大陸的觀光客跑來的話，我們有哪些旅遊景點招待他們？我們交通幹線可以容納大量的觀光客嗎？如果容納不下，來的觀光客數目受到限制的話，對經濟又有什麼幫助呢？

「...」(默然以對)

請不要誤會，我不是反對三通。我也覺得三通早通比晚通好。但是，大陸人又不是笨蛋，憑什麼你說不通就不通，你說通就馬上通？為什麼李登輝、陳水扁加起來讓大陸吃了十二年的閉門羹，現在大陸卻要做這個球給馬英九？大陸政府也不是不知道台灣在等著賺他們的錢，幹嘛要把錢送給台灣賺，不順勢多凹一些政治籌碼？

那如果三通刺激台灣經濟之路不會那麼順遂的話，股市要怎麼瞬間飛躍萬點大關？更不用說即使三通以後，觀光客來台灣的交通住宿是否能夠容納等配套問題了。

[註] 今天寫這篇，是因為收到 stealth 轉寄一篇陶冬寫的文章。我查了一下，原文應該出自這裡。不過大陸網站在台灣看難免比較慢，我把原文照引如下。基本上的立論我是很同意的：台灣對三通和三通所造成的經濟前景太樂觀了些。

台灣市場對總統選舉過度樂觀

　　經濟與政治難分家，在兩岸關係上更是如此。

　　台灣民眾矚目於三月二十二日的總統大選，希望政局的改變，能夠帶來經濟的轉運，帶來兩岸關係的轉機。台灣經濟的轉型，以及最終收入與就業的改善，很大程度上取決於兩岸關係能否走出死胡同。今年一月立委選舉後的股市急升，反映出市場求變的心態和對轉型的信心；三通股一馬當先，則反映市場對兩岸關係迅速改善充滿期望。

　　總統府易主，是對過去八年行政政策的一種了結，可能帶來新的思維、新的政策、新的希望。如果馬英九當選，更會帶來近年罕見的行政、立法上的一致，無疑有利於新政策的推出、執行。

　　無論馬英九還是謝長廷當選，筆者認為兩岸關係都會揭開新的一頁。台灣海峽兩岸即使沒有蜜月期，也會有一個觀察期、適應期，雙方在觀望中調整，在調整中試探，在試探中適應。「聽其言、觀其行」，應該是北京的既定立場。適當地伸出橄欖枝，是自然的，但是指望北京熱烈擁抱台北新政權，則是天真的、不現實的。其實北京對馬英九並不信任。馬英九並非連戰，與中國既無淵源，又少共鳴，其過去之所言、所行，令北京有一種說不清的不安。謝長廷也非陳水扁，北京對謝的務實求變是有期待的，但是以「觀其行」起勢也在所難免——陳水扁當初也曾承諾「四不一沒有」。

　　世界上沒有免費的午餐。台灣如果認為只要自己願意打開大門，大陸便會奉上黃金白銀，則未免過於天真。在北京眼裡，三通在二十年前是橄欖枝，十年前意味著通商，今天則等於送錢。兩岸之間長期進行著單向交流，台灣源源不斷地向大陸輸送著資金、技術、人才——心甘情願地，並從中獲利。

　　今天所謂三通，是大陸資金、遊客進入台灣，基本上是大陸給台灣實惠，為台灣經濟輸血。這層互動的主導者是中國政府，而非大陸的企業或遊客，很難不打上政治的烙印。三通是大陸的籌碼，經濟上的實惠必然和政治上的互動聯繫在一起，北京希望以此建立起兩岸之間長期的、不可逆轉的良性互動和政治穩定。在沒有做到這一點前，打雷估計多過下雨，大方針易定，細節落實則可能大不易。

　　說到細節，台灣政府中瞭解大陸、瞭解北京政府的人才奇缺。多少年來政府之間缺少起碼的溝通渠道，對於不同政府部門背後的利益淵源更是知之甚少。如此情況下，台灣與大陸打交道，便好像在黑屋內亂摸，不得要領。筆者相信，政府之間關於細節的談判，時間會拖得很長，一夜間成事更是不可能的。

　　香港於一九九七年回歸，真正受惠於「中國因素」則是二○○三年以後的事，是在香港歷經ＳＡＲＳ和政治危機之後的事。港府官員經常私下抱怨，與北京高官手握了，影照了，最高官員滿口表示合作，但是到了具體部門，香港官員連拍哪一個政府的門都不清楚，至於不同部門之間的利益糾葛則更是一無所知。換言之，上層的承諾難以落實到部門，至於項目細節的推進更是舉步維艱。港府官員至少花了五～六年時間，才摸出與北京衙門打交道的路數、竅門，雙方合作才變得順利。兩岸官場上所需要相互摸索的時間，只會更長不會更短。

　　台灣的金融業並不發達，大陸企業不會大規模利用台灣的資本平台。坊間寄以厚望的大陸資金大量湧入，筆者認為也難在近期成事。大陸的ＱＤＩＩ進入某市場前，必須與當地政府簽訂條約，在台灣主權定位這個問題上有繞不開的障礙，何況中國資金目前關心的是美歐市場。無論是主權基金還是巨型國企，筆者看不到它們入主台灣公司的強烈興趣。台灣缺少大陸資金最感興趣的要素——資源、金融、技術、品牌。

　　更重要的是，兩岸關係並不穩定，總統官邸的主人四年一選，天空的顏色隨時可能由藍變綠，大陸投資隨時可能因變天而進退兩難，因此在目前環境下很難指望中國政府在針對台灣的大型併購上大力倡導、積極推動。當然不排除個人熱錢流入台灣房地產，不過這也未必是短期的事。

　　比較現實的是旅遊業。台北小吃、故宮博物館、日月潭，對大陸遊客都有吸引力。不過除此之外的景點選擇好像並不多。台灣沒有香港的繁華塵囂、布吉的海灘陽光、巴黎的文化情調，台北之外的城市與大陸二、三線城市相比其實差別不大。

台灣目前每日允許一千名大陸遊客入境，一年的上限為卅六萬五千人，這與香港、澳門每年各自接納二千萬以上大陸人士相比，實有天壤之差。以目前的入境上限，大陸遊客對台灣ＧＤＰ的真正拉動，不會超過○'○五％。即使上限向上加十倍，對經濟的實質貢獻其實也十分有限。

　　面對大陸遊客入台的商機，台灣似乎炒作多、想像多，不過實際動作並不多。旅遊業要做的不僅是建幾家酒店，而可能需要在旅遊服務業作許多功夫，要設立面向大陸遊客的購物中心，推出生態、海洋旅遊，打造充滿台灣風清的民俗節目。海洋公園、廣東道、星光大道的變化，折射出香港旅遊業在吸引大陸遊客上所作的努力。經濟轉型，不僅是政府立場上的改變，同時必須伴隨著民間的努力、調整和創新。

　　台灣這塊招牌必須珍惜，旅遊業的準備務必充分。第一步走得不好，口碑不佳，則以後步步受制，香港迪斯尼盲目自大，準備不足所產生的前車之鑑，不可不察。

　　三月二十二日可能是台灣經濟出現轉機的一日。但是，經濟轉型需要時間，更需要努力，三通實難一蹴而就。市場似乎將總統大選當成台灣經濟轉型的速效藥，股市更偷步向上。在筆者看來這種觀點過度樂觀，甚至有些天真。

我本來看到新聞嚇一跳，以為盤中這個新聞就出來了。如果真的是這樣，那麼今天大盤還可以漲三百點的話，觀點應該就要修正一下。還好仔細看了一下，應該是盤後的消息。

市場對這個新聞有什麼反應，看明天開盤就知道了。不過我可不希望它在這裡反應太兇啊，我希望大盤還能彈高一點再下手...

• MSCI季調整 微降台股權重
• 中印吸金 MSCI微降台股權重

今天在 San Jose 旅館剛起床，到處都在講的新聞就是微軟提議用 446 億美金 (44.6 billion) 收購 Yahoo。消息一出，Yahoo 股價開盤應聲大漲接近五成，來到 28 元的水準。



市場顯然十分喜歡這個 bid，也表示華爾街對 Yahoo 只靠自己的 restructure 和奮鬥是否能夠翻身已經不再具備任何耐心。由這種股價反映看來，華爾街顯然希望有外部的 executive 進來，或者尤其是微軟這種具有戰略性角色的公司來作收購。

這種股價曲線，看在眼裡，實在感觸不少。現在 Yahoo 已經淪落到即使股價漲了 50% 都還只有 28 元的水準了。在各界都對 Yahoo 喪失信心的時候，微軟的收購是否能夠替 Yahoo 重新帶來新生命？成敗當然還在未定之天。可是有希望總比沒希望好，金融市場總是希望有夢想。而夢想正是 Yahoo 沒辦法提供的。

如果你問我，我覺得 Yahoo 是否應該答應？我會說，"the short answer is yes"。
你想問更詳細一點的話，我會說，"the long answer is a bit longer, but it's still yes"。

大師說話了。正所謂喊水會結凍，不管信不信他的言論，整個市場都得瞧瞧大師說些什麼。索羅斯在金融時報寫了一篇評論，談的是最近的熱門話題 - Market Crisis。看來運用的仍然是他核心的 reflextivity 理論建構出的 boom-bust cycle，來解讀現在的市場狀況，以及信用市場不可避免逐漸緊縮的問題。

The danger is that the resulting political tensions, including US protectionism, may disrupt the global economy and plunge the world into recession or worse.

大家的看法看來都差不多。只看看效應什麼時候逐漸展開，又會發酵到什麼程度了...

不過我倒是突然想到，這陣子馬英九謝長廷都狂拋經濟利多議題，每個人都想表現的好像自己選上以後台灣人每個都會口袋麥克麥克一樣。問題是我們接下來幾年面對的世界經濟局勢如此險峻，他們喊震天價響的口號到底有多少效果，可實在讓我不太有信心。但是我對歷任行政院長喊的口號倒是信心十足 - 絕對不可能實現。從連戰的「台灣競爭力 Top 5」 以來，張俊雄的 「Taiwan Double」、蘇貞昌的「大溫暖」，拋棄式的口號用過即丟，過往紀錄輝煌無比。我想這次由總統候選人喊口號，大概也是差不多吧。

Thanks to stealth for the link ;)

Well，大家都知道，經濟部商業司有個可以查詢工商登記的地方。當年找到「科高」也是多虧這個查詢網站。今天下午一時好奇，想翻查一些網路公司登記的營業項目不曉得都列些什麼。順手打「雅虎」下去查，跟以前一樣有很多其他阿里不打的公司用「雅虎」登記公司名稱。沒想到這時候突然發現...


(你可以點這裡看大圖) 啥？Yahoo! 奇摩什麼時候變成「香港商雅虎資訊」了？而且英文名稱還是「YAHOO! TAIWAN HOLDINGS LIMITED」，是 Yahoo! 奇摩轉型當控股公司了嗎？@_@ 應該是被不知道哪個怪香港人註冊的公司名吧？當下立刻點下去看登記的資料：


(一樣，點這裡可以看大圖) 哇塞，還真的耶。連公司地址都和正牌的「雅虎國際資訊」一樣，而且「訴訟及非訴訟代理人姓名」也確實是... ！那現在的 Yahoo! 奇摩網站，在台灣到達率超過98%，到底是「雅虎國際資訊」呢，還是「香港商雅虎資訊」才對？誰搞的清楚？

其實哪一個才對我也不太 care。我比較好奇的是，他們這樣轉變的背後意義是什麼呢？之前我曾經聽說過一些公司，為了處理勞退舊制和新制的問題，乾脆成立一個新公司，把舊公司的員工「解雇」，再由新公司重新 hire 這樣。可是雅虎奇摩在之前並沒有這樣做，反而是現在改頭換面變成香港公司，不禁讓人直覺聯想... 難道是準備趁香港股市正熱，到香港上市嗎？

當然這只是我的胡亂猜測。但是如果是真的，這一著可也真不錯。反正現在恆生指數熱成這樣，眼看著阿里巴巴這種網站都可以在香港上市當天立刻漲三倍，本益比超過 100 倍的時候，大股東跟著眼紅心動恐怕是難免的。只是，這個猜測到底是離譜到不行，還是稍微沾到一點邊，就只有天才知道了....

常常聽到有人說，政府執政做的很爛，台灣的股市表現都比其他國家差很多。也有不少人說，現在的台股指數比當年總統上臺的時候還高，怎麼會說台灣股市表現差呢？

剛好看到 Economist 在這邊有編一份圖表，2003 年至今幾個國家的股價指數變化就一目瞭然了。裡面也有把台灣排進去，可以稍微看一下。不過也要注意的是，因為計算基準是以 2003 年一月的股價指數來計算，所以最好也把 2003 年一月各國的股價位置考慮進去。

諾亞方舟 (Noah's Ark) 的故事很有名。聖經記載，上帝告知諾亞祂要讓萬物滅絕，並且指示諾亞造方舟，讓他挑選一些動物一起到舟上避難。之後大洪水果然降臨，地上的萬物只有諾亞一家，以及方舟中的生物得以倖免於難。

諾亞為什麼得救？不是因為他預知了洪水，而是他造了方舟。
如果諾亞知道洪水要來，可是沒做逃生的準備，那一點用也沒有。

倘若瀏覽人氣旺的金融投資討論區，不管當下市場行情如何，總是有人對市場現況分析的頭頭是道。但是分析的好壞有什麼相干？鐵口直斷又有什麼屁用？投資績效的好壞，只看操作結果而定。

這次海外 subprime 泡沫影響到許多人的房貸。但是房價泡沫化是這幾個月才發生的事情嗎？早在 2003 年就有人大聲疾呼要小心注意了。雖然我們不能遇見泡沫什麼時候破裂，但是我們仍然可以知道泡沫正在形成。不是嗎？知道泡沫正在形成，卻沒有做任何規避的措施，這不就好像諾亞知道有洪水卻沒有造舟嗎？

911 事件發生以後，巴菲特的保險公司痛賠了不少錢。巴菲特只說，他居然也忘了諾亞方舟的啟示。明明知道有風險在這裡，卻沒有轉嫁出去，能怪誰呢？

不管我們想要什麼、希望什麼，都不重要。重要的只是我們作了些什麼。

看書和投資其實很像。

• 越早開始投資，複利的效果才更能發揮出來。越早開始閱讀，得到智慧的時間越長。
• 一般人不愛投資，正如一般人不愛閱讀。
• 大家都愛買的投資標的多半不怎麼樣，暢銷書排行榜的書也多半庸俗不堪。
• 看到好書，就好像買了一流的投資標的一樣，會忍不住想推薦給其他人。
• 其他人聽到這種推薦，泰半一笑置之，不會當真。

一個是智慧的資本，一個是財務的資本。但是大眾看待兩者的方式好像差不多。

這幾天網路界的大事，應該就是 Yahoo! 的 CEO Terry Semel 終於下台了，楊致遠 Jerry Yang 重新上台掌兵符。在 Yahoo! 官方 blog 上也宣佈了這個消息。

其實去年，就在 Yahoo! 股價跌跌不修的時候，我一直以為 Terry Semel 要閃人了。當時的投資人怨聲載道，幾個關鍵計畫例如 Panama 一延再延，華爾街實在是沒有什麼耐心多給他機會。我也已為去年十月 Yahoo! 的 re-org 會讓他下台，換當時的 COO Dan Rosenweig 繼位成為 CEO，沒想到局面剛好相反，董事會決定再給 Terry 一個機會，反過來把 Dan 砍掉 XD

不過畢竟一個連 email 都不用的 CEO，在網路泡沫的谷底或許適合帶領網路公司發展媒體公司之路 (你看 Tom Cruise 就會去 Sunnyvale 而不是 Google 的 Mountain View XD) ，但是在現在新技術大鳴大放的回溫時期，Terry 或許就不是一個上選的 CEO 了。

沒想到現在，Terry Semel 真的下台了，換成老面孔 Jerry Yang 回頭力挽狂瀾。正在走下坡的公司換老闆，華爾街當然喜歡。因為換老闆代表新走向，走下坡的公司有新走向代表有希望。但是這次 Jerry Yang 能不能帶著 Yahoo! 重新殺出一條自己的路？就有待觀察了...

不過很多人認為 Yahoo! 當年完全 ignore 掉搜尋市場是錯的，也認為 Terry Semel 完全錯過這個大餅，我的看法卻完全不一樣。事後諸葛當然很容易推敲一些簡單的結論出來，但是 Search 的市場真的很大嗎？ ... Search 之所以是一個大市場、Google 之所以能夠靠這個賺錢，因為所有人都到 Google 做 search。

換言之，只要這種情況不改變，那麼不管 Google 用 search 做什麼生意，都可以賺錢。因為這根本是一家獨大的市場，跟當年的微軟沒有兩樣。

重點不是 search 的市場，重點在於 Google 把一個市場弄到獨大了。Yahoo! 要怎麼走自己的路，就要看 Jerry Yang 怎麼重新定位走向了...

在 Engineer 以外的世界，知道 VMware 是什麼的人恐怕不多。不過，就在 VMWare 被 EMC 買走三年後的現在，VMware 也準備要 IPO 了。EMC 準備釋出大約 10% 的 VMware 股份，藉由 VMware 的價值來宣示 EMC 股價被低估。

2004 年的時候，EMC 花了 $635M 買下 VMware。而光是 2006 年，VMware 就已經為 EMC 賺進了 $704M，預估今年 VMware 會賺上 $1.2B。

看起來，EMC 還真是做了一筆好生意啊... 照這種市場價值估算起來，現在 VMware 的市值恐怕已經超過 $10 billion 了...

晚上沒睡覺，閒著翻翻文章。無意間逛到篇有趣的：大家看清楚這些年薪數百萬的外資分析師嘴臉。原文摘取大意如下。首先是一月的時候有一則新聞：

【時報-記者郭鴻慧台北報導】繼瑞銀與港商里昂證券針對營建股發出保守看待訊息後，港商麥格里證券昨日「全面性」調降營建股投資評等，營建股欲哭無淚。去年底起，外資券商紛紛對營建股發出警語，里昂證券及瑞銀證券率先對營建股發出空方警訊，麥格里證券昨日更是一口氣將一票營建資產股，包括將長虹(5534)、華固(2548)、信義房屋(9940)、國建(2501)、宏普(2536)、台肥(1722)、遠紡(1402)、裕隆(2201)等調降為「表現低於大盤」，僅餘大陸工「表現優於大盤」。此外，瑞銀與法銀巴黎證券昨日也分別將大陸工程與信義房屋投資評等分別調降至「中立」與「繼續持有」。

然後是五月十號，最近的新聞：

營建資產股 里昂證喊進

【經濟日報／記者陳盈羽／台北報導】 2007.05.10 02:20 am

看到營建資產股最近表現溫吞吞，一向對國內營建資產股最有研究的里昂證券再次大力喊進資產營建股；里昂證券分析師許蕙蕙表示，目前最有升值潛力的地區是台北市外圍和台北縣，包括台肥（1722）、宏盛（2534）、宏普（2536）、三陽（2206）與國產（2504）等公司將會受惠。

外資券商以往多以電子股為研究主力，僅多旁及金融、中概股；里昂證券是第一家大力研究營建資產股的外資券商，也帶動許多外資券商加入研究營建資產股的風潮。

許蕙蕙表示，台灣資產股從去年12月的北高市長選舉後，跌了約一成，主要是對國民黨勝選、開放兩岸的信心減弱，儘管現在看來，國民黨總統候選人馬英九要勝選才是資產股最大的利多，但其實民進黨與國民黨的兩岸政策差距正逐漸縮小中。

她進一步表示，目前仍有升值潛力的土地區域，是在台北市外緣和台北縣地區，漲幅將高過價格已達天價的的台北市中心，加上還有如高鐵、鐵路車站、南港捷運站、內湖科學園區等建設都在進行中，台北縣將會持續吸引外來者移入。

感興趣的人可以分別去查一下，一月和五月的營建股股價變化情形。

群眾是善忘的，事情過了幾天幾個禮拜就不記得了。所以不管是分析師，還是政客，都很容易混飯吃。永遠沒有人記得你三個月前說過什麼話，也沒有人會來拆穿那些自相矛盾的謊言。或許這也是為什麼我愛 Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds。因為有些東西，千百年下來還是不會變。

看來併購風潮還未止歇，而且越演越烈。會不會再掀起 80 年代 LBO、MBO 的狂潮呢？也許有人會告訴我說這已經開始發生了吧？

晚上碰到前同事跟我說，今晚 YHOO 開盤大漲十幾趴，後來查證似乎是受到微軟併購傳聞影響。相關資料可以看華爾街日報的報導 (不過只有摘要就是了)。


微軟和 Yahoo 之前就已經談過又破局，這次在 Google 買下 DoubleClick 之後是不是感到壓力更迫切了呢？還是有其他的原因？不過不管這次商談成局與否，翻閱最近的新聞，世界各地併購聲總是傳不完啊... 先不管某些 6 哥哥 7 弟弟一直提的網路併購風潮，光是最近大的併購案就不少：

• Royal Bank of Scotland 被英國的 Barclays 用 660 億歐元 (大約 $900 億美金) 買下。
  
• 就在上述消息公佈的幾天之後，Royal Bank of Scotland 決定參與競標 ABN AMRO。據說商談價碼高達 720 億歐元。
  
• 在葡萄牙，Millennium BCP 重提了購併條件，希望用 53 億歐元 (約 $72 億美金) 買下 Banco BPI。
• 瑞典藥廠 AstraZeneca 決定買下生技藥廠 MedImmune，價碼 $156 億美金。
• 重量級私募基金 KKR 大致敲定買下 Alliance Boots，價碼 111 億英鎊 (大約 $220 億美金)。KKR 的 offer 也是歐洲有史以來最大規模的 LBO。
• 法國的家樂福買了巴西的 Atacadao，一家當地的量販店。價碼 $11 億美金。在這樁併購案之後，家樂福成為巴西最大的零售商。

在這無止境的併購案後面，我們可以看的出來，併購不只是發生在網路界，而是各行各業、跨國進行。在全球化高喊了這麼多年的現在，企業的國界也終於越來越平坦了。

[Update]：關於 MS 併購 Yahoo 的傳聞，從 Chen 兄的這篇看來，似乎是已經再度告吹了 :p

放假回來，該暖暖身了。除了公事以外，該讀的書還是要讀，該看的新聞還是要看。

• 中國年度軍事預算比去年成長了 18%，而且一般外界估計中國軍事預算都是低報的。
• 俄羅斯每年畢業的理工學生高達 20 萬人，已經是世界第三大軟體代工國。
  
• 東京證交所老板換人了。就在結盟宣布不久之後。據說新老闆會延續著跟各界結盟的腳步走。
• Texas Pacific Group 繼上次和 KKR 想買 TXU 以後，最近又 propose 一個 $4.5 Billion 的 deal，想買西班牙的 Iberia 航空。
• Delta 航空預計這個月會從破產保護中走出來，目前已經申請股票重新上市交易。
• 另一個和 Blackstone、Texas Pacific Group 同樣量級的 KKR，說要花 $29 billion 買下 First Data。而且這筆鉅額併購，KKR 不打算號招其他同行一起來分攤風險，肥水不落外人田。

世界不會因為放假就停止運轉。

以後 conf. call 不能說 Cisco 的壞話了？ :p

算是舊聞了，可是還是要貼一下。在這裡和這裡看到的消息，Cisco 以 32 億美金的高價併購線上視訊會議公司 WebEx，而且也已經對外發布新聞稿。至於有的地方說成交價是 29 億美金，而有的地方則標明 32 億美金，數字上不一致的原因，是因為 WebEx 帳面上有 3 億美金的現金資產，所以有的人認為購併價格應該算成 29 億元。

WebEx 有沒有這麼值錢？我是不知道啦... 不過有人願意出高價買，股東願意讓售也是很正常的嘛。Cisco 這幾年，還真的都是靠 M&A 在茁壯啊... 不過相對於其他公司來說，Cisco 算是很有誠意的了。至少不是靠股權交換進行併購的，好歹人家也是真槍實彈用鈔票買啊。

吃完早餐看新聞，看到 Google 的 anti-spammer 很興奮的寫東西。這才知道，原來 SEC 公告要把 35 家被 SPAM 提到的公司停止交易，期限十天。

看起來立意是很良善，被稱為 Operation Spamalot 的行動是為了保護散戶不被錯誤的資訊引導或是矇蔽。而且照 SEC director 義正嚴詞的說法：「當 spam 進到我們的 inbox，是惱人的事情。但是當 spam 剝削了投資人，那麼就是有毀滅效果的犯罪行為。這次 SEC 的行動，應該對 spammers 傳達了很清楚的訊息。」看起來是好像都沒錯啦... 可是是我心機太重了嗎？如果我發別的公司的 spam，尤其是敵對公司的明牌 spam，會怎麼樣？

難道這是讓敵方公司股票流動性大減的好方法嗎? @_@

日月光和 AMD，大概是近來半導體業最熱的兩個新聞了吧？

在上次私募基金 (Private Equity) 傳出凱雷想要收購日月光之後，AMD 也傳出成為私募基金相中的標的之一。由圖中可以看出，昨天消息傳出後，市場反應造成股價大漲。(新聞可以看 Forbes 或是 Reuters 的報導)

AMD 才在一月揭露 2006 Q4 的財報，虧了 $574M，加上對前景不佳的預測，造成股價難有起色。現在傳出 PE 對他有興趣，不知道是真？還是假？可以預見的是，已經紅透了的 PE，還會繼續造成不少話題就是了。

剛剛在這裡看來的, Google 似乎又要替科技產業建立一個創舉了。
過去二十年來, 科技公司都盡量用股票選擇權 (stock options) 來當作
吸引優秀員工的手法。這個手段被採用的層面之廣, 可以從過去幾年來
討論 stock options 在會計科目上是否要被列入費用計算, 各個科技公司
的強烈反彈窺見一般。

但是股票市場波動性大, 許多員工不願意冒著長期持有選擇權的風險,
希望盡早獲利入袋。另一方面, 許多公司現在發放 options 也盡量低調,
不希望捲入最近新聞炒的火紅的選擇權醜聞當中。

於是 Google 開始和摩根史坦利合作。讓員工 (非高階主管) 可以選擇
把自己的選擇權賣給摩根史坦利。摩根史坦利會開發一個半私有的選
則權市場, 讓 Google 的員工可以在這個市場內出售自己的選擇權。運
作方式據報導說和目前市場上的股票選擇權雷同。

風險轉嫁是古老的金融市場老把戲。但是套用在現代的科技業上面, 卻
變成了創舉。不知道會不會有越來越多公司逐漸採用這種做法?

啊, Google finance 出了呢

從以前的 search stock quote, 現在的服務感覺功能增加不少
除了報價, flash scrollable 的盤中走勢圖, 新聞消息以外,
也有公司基本資料、財務報表、相關 (同業?) 公司資訊等等

滿特別的呢... 可惜大概沒有 realtime stock quotes 吧?

不知道台灣這裡會不會有一樣的服務推出來咧?

Google Rolls Out Finance Site
Google Finance