George Lee's blog

好久沒看到這種景象了。大跌不怎麼令人意外，但是高達 157 點的逆價差卻著實不常見。在期貨市場的賣聲隆隆之中，也讓人再次見識到市場激情的特色。

雖然最近忙到翻掉，但是看到這麼戲劇性的東西，還是要寫一下當紀念的 :p

就在 Steve Ballmer 說微軟決定撤回對 Yahoo 的併購案之後，今晚 Carl Icahn 對 Yahoo 董事會開砲了，發表了一封公開信。這位老兄好怒啊。他形容雅虎董事會

「躲在管理階層過度樂觀的財務預測後面，十分不負責任。」

他也說，

「微軟的提案十分慷慨，對雅虎的估價比公開求婚的前一天還要高出 72%。拒絕這個提議顯然是非常不理智的。」

實力雄厚的 Carl Icahn，除了開罵以外，也擺明他不是只有一張嘴而已。公開信中聲稱，他已經花了十三億美金買了雅虎五千九百萬股 (大約佔雅虎 4% 股權)。而且他正在向美國聯邦交易委員會提出申請，希望得到反托拉斯的許可，以便買下價值二十五億美金的雅虎股權 (大約 8% 左右)。

Icahn 表示不只贊成微軟的購併案，而且也打算提案撤換雅虎的董事會 - 他已經公開提了一個十人名單，希望能夠在七月三號的雅虎股東年會上面，取得多數董事席位。十人都是赫赫有名，除了他自己以外，還包括：

• 網路創業傳奇人物 Mark Cuban
• Viacom 創辦人 Frank Biondi Jr.
• New Line Cenima 的 CEO Robert Shaye
• 創投家 Adam Dell。啥？你不認識他？那你至少該認得他哥哥 Michael Dell 吧？

Carl Icahn 這些舉動的背後，和微軟的 Steve Ballmer 有沒有什麼默契或是私下的合作，是很耐人尋味的。不過這是楊致遠和雅虎董事會要擔心的事情了。我們只要負責看連續劇看不到的好戲就好了啊！ XD

話說回來，楊致遠接任 CEO 以後，風波總是不斷。他能夠有時間精力來做好公司重整的工作嗎？我很懷疑。光是應付微軟大巨獸想必就已經筋疲力竭了。現在又來一個 Carl Icahn，恐怕難得有一夜好眠了...

[註] Carl Icahn 是具有傳奇色彩的投資人。他以爭取股東權益聞名，令許多上市公司老闆聞之色變。最近的事蹟是投資摩托羅拉事件。他所投資的公司，通常伴隨著大規模的重整，包括經營階層的重新洗牌與裁員。
[註二] 公開信的全文在這裡可以看到。我照引如下：

SECURITY HOLDERS ARE ADVISED TO READ THE PROXY STATEMENT AND OTHER DOCUMENTS RELATED TO THE SOLICITATION OF PROXIES BY Carl C. Icahn AND HIS AFFILIATES FROM THE STOCKHOLDERS OF YAHOO! INC. FOR USE AT ITS ANNUAL MEETING, WHEN AND IF THEY BECOME AVAILABLE, BECAUSE THEY WILL CONTAIN IMPORTANT INFORMATION, INCLUDING INFORMATION RELATING TO THE PARTICIPANTS IN ANY SUCH PROXY SOLICITATION. WHEN AND IF COMPLETED, A DEFINITIVE PROXY STATEMENT AND A FORM OF PROXY WILL BE MAILED TO STOCKHOLDERS OF YAHOO! INC. AND WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT NO CHARGE AT THE SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION'S WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.SEC.GOV. INFORMATION RELATING TO THE POTENTIAL PARTICIPANTS IN A POTENTIAL PROXY SOLICITATION IS CONTAINED IN EXHIBIT 1 TO THE SCHEDULE 14A BEING FILED TODAY WITH THE SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION.

                                Carl C. Icahn
                           ICAHN CAPITAL LP
                     767 Fifth Avenue, 47th Floor
                          New York, NY 10153

May 15, 2008

Roy Bostock
Chairman
Yahoo! Inc.
701 First Avenue
Sunnyvale, CA 94089

Dear Mr. Bostock:

It is clear to me that the board of directors of Yahoo has acted irrationally and lost the faith of shareholders and Microsoft. It is quite obvious that Microsoft's bid of $33 per share is a superior alternative to Yahoo's prospects on a standalone basis. I am perplexed by the board's actions. It is irresponsible to hide behind management's more than overly optimistic financial forecasts. It is unconscionable that you have not allowed your shareholders to choose to accept an offer that represented a 72% premium over Yahoo's closing price of $19.18 on the day before the initial Microsoft offer. I and many of your shareholders strongly believe that a combination between Yahoo and Microsoft would form a dynamic company and more importantly would be a force strong enough to compete with Google on the Internet.

During the past week, a number of shareholders have asked me to lead a proxy fight to attempt to remove the current board and to establish a new board which would attempt to negotiate a successful merger with Microsoft, something that in my opinion the current board has completely botched. I believe that a combination between Microsoft and Yahoo is by far the most sensible path for both companies. I have therefore taken the following actions: (1) during the last 10 days, I have purchased approximately 59 million shares and share-equivalents of Yahoo; (2) I have formed a 10-person slate which will stand for election against the current board; and (3) I have sought antitrust clearance from the Federal Trade Commission to acquire up to approximately $2.5 billion worth of Yahoo stock. The biographies of the members of our slate are attached to this letter. A more formal notification is being delivered today to Yahoo under separate cover.

While it is my understanding that you do not intend to enter into any transaction that would impede a Microsoft-Yahoo merger, I am concerned that in several recent press releases you stated that you intend to pursue certain "strategic alternatives". I therefore hope and trust that if there is any question that these "strategic alternatives" might in any way impede a future Microsoft merger you will at the very least allow shareholders to opine on them before embarking on such a transaction.

I sincerely hope you heed the wishes of your shareholders and move expeditiously to negotiate a merger with Microsoft, thereby making a proxy fight unnecessary.

    Sincerely yours,

CARL C. ICAHN

                          SLATE BIOGRAPHIES

Lucian A. Bebchuk

Lucian Bebchuk is the William J. Friedman and Alicia Townsend Friedman Professor of Law, Economics, and Finance and Director of the Program on Corporate Governance at Harvard Law School. Bebchuk is also a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research and Inaugural Fellow of the European Corporate Governance Network. Trained in both law and economics, Bebchuk holds an LL.M. and S.J.D. from Harvard Law School and an M.A. and Ph.D in Economics from the Harvard Economics Department. He joined the Harvard Law School faculty in 1986 as an assistant professor, becoming a full professor in 1988, and the Friedman Professor of Law, Economics and Finance in 1998. Bebchuk has written extensively on corporate governance, corporate control, and corporate transactions. He has published more than seventy research articles in academic journals in law, economics, and finance. Upon electing him to membership in 2000, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences cited him as "[o]ne of the nation's leading scholars of law and economics," who "has made major contribution to the study of corporate control, governance, and insolvency." He is the 2007-2008 President of the American Law and Economics Association, and a former chair of the Business Association Section of the American Association of Law Teachers. Bebchuk's recent writings include Pay without Performance: the Unfulfilled Promise of Executive Compensation (Harvard University Press, 2004, co-authored with Jesse Fried), "The Case for Increasing Shareholder Power" (Harvard Law Review, 2005), "The Costs of Entrenched Boards" (Journal of Financial Economics, 2005, co-authored with Alma Cohen), and "The Myth of the Shareholder Franchise" (Virginia Law Review, 2007). Bebchuk has been a frequent contributor to policy making and public discourse in the corporate governance area. He has appeared before the Senate Finance Committee, the House Committee of Financial Services, and the SEC. He has published many op-ed pieces, including in the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, and the Financial Times. He was included in the list of "100 most influential people in finance" of Treasury & Risk Management and the list of "100 most influential players in corporate governance" of Directorship magazine.

Frank J. Biondi, Jr.

Since March 1999, Mr. Biondi has served as Senior Managing Director of WaterView Advisors LLC, an investment advisor organization. From April 1996 to November 1998, Mr. Biondi served as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Universal Studios, Inc. From July 1987 to January 1996, Mr. Biondi served as President and Chief Executive Officer of Viacom, Inc. Mr. Biondi is a director of Amgen Inc., Cablevision Systems Corp., Hasbro, Inc., The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation and Seagate Technology. Mr. Biondi is a graduate of Princeton University and earned a Masters of Business Administration from Harvard University.

John H. Chapple

John Chapple is President of Hawkeye Investments LLC, a privately-owned equity firm investing primarily in telecommunications and real estate ventures frequently working in conjunction with Rally Capital LLC. Prior to forming Hawkeye, John Chapple worked to organize Nextel Partners, a provider of digital wireless services in mid-size and smaller markets throughout the U.S. He became the President, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board of Nextel Partners and its subsidiaries in August of 1998. Nextel Partners went public in February 2000 and was traded on the NASDAQ Exchange. In June 2006, the company was purchased by Sprint Communications. From 1995 to 1997, Mr. Chapple was the President and Chief Operating Officer for Orca Bay Sports and Entertainment in Vancouver, B.C. During Mr. Chapple's tenure, Orca Bay owned and operated Vancouver's National Basketball Association and National Hockey League sports franchises in addition to the General Motors Place sports arena and retail interests. From 1988 to 1995, he served as Executive Vice President of Operations for McCaw Cellular Communications and subsequently AT&T Wireless Services following the merger of those companies. From 1978 to 1983, he served on the senior management team of Rogers Cablesystems before moving to American Cablesystems as Senior Vice President of Operations from 1983 to 1988. Mr. Chapple, a graduate of Syracuse University and Harvard University's Advanced Management Program, has 26 years of experience in the cable television and wireless communications industries. Mr. Chapple is the past Chairman of Cellular One Group and CTIA-The Wireless Association, past Vice-Chairman of the Cellular Telecommunications Industry Association and has been on the Board of Governors of the NHL and NBA. Mr. Chapple serves on the Syracuse University Board of Trustees currently as Chairman and the Advisory Board for the Maxwell School of Syracuse University. He is also on the Board of Directors of Cbeyond, Inc., a publicly traded Atlanta-based integrated service telephony company; Seamobile Enterprises, a privately held company providing integrated wireless services at sea; Telesphere, a privately held VOIP (voice over internet protocol) company based in Phoenix, Arizona; and on the advisory boards of Diamond Castle Holdings, LLC, a private equity firm based in New York City and the Daniel J. Evans School of Public Affairs at University of Washington.

Mark Cuban

Since early 2000, Mr. Cuban has been the majority and controlling owner of the National Basketball Association franchise, the Dallas Mavericks. In 2001, Mr. Cuban co-founded HDNet, an all high-definition television network on DIRECTV that broadcasts high-definition sports, movies and other entertainment. Prior to his purchase of the Dallas Mavericks, Mr. Cuban co- founded Broadcast.com in 1995 and served as its Chairman of the Board until it was sold to Yahoo! in July of 1999. Before Broadcast.com, Mr. Cuban co-founded MicroSolutions, a national systems integrator, in 1983, which was later sold to CompuServe Corporation in 1990. Mr. Cuban is an active investor in cutting- edge technologies and various industries, including the entertainment industry.

Adam Dell

Since January 2000, Mr. Dell has served as the Managing General Partner of Impact Venture Partners, a venture capital firm focused on information technology investments. He also serves as Managing Director at Steelpoint Capital Partners, a private equity firm with offices in New York and California. From October 1998 to January 2000, Mr. Dell was a Senior Associate and subsequently a Partner with Crosspoint Venture Partners in Northern California. From July 1997 to August 1998, he was a Senior Associate with Enterprise Partners in Southern California. From January 1996 to June 1997 Mr. Dell was associated with the law firm of Winstead Sechrest & Minick, in Austin, Texas, where he practiced corporate law. Mr. Dell's investments include: Buzzsaw (which was acquired by Autodesk), HotJobs (which was acquired by Yahoo!) and Connectify (which was acquired by Kana Software). Mr. Dell has been a director of XO Holdings, Inc., a telecommunications services provider, since February 2006, and of its predecessor from January 2003 to February 2006. In addition, Mr. Dell currently serves on the boards of directors of the Santa Fe Institute, MessageOne and OpenTable. He also teaches a course at the Columbia Business School on business, technology and innovation and is a contributing columnist to the technology publication, Business 2.0. Mr. Dell received a J.D. from University of Texas and a B.A. from Tulane University.

Carl C. Icahn

Mr. Icahn has served as chairman of the board and a director of Starfire Holding Corporation, a privately-held holding company, and chairman of the board and a director of various subsidiaries of Starfire, since 1984. Since August 2007, through his position as Chief Executive Officer of Icahn Capital LP, a wholly owned subsidiary of Icahn Enterprises L.P., and certain related entities, Mr. Icahn's principal occupation is managing private investment funds, including Icahn Partners LP, Icahn Partners Master Fund LP, Icahn Partners Master Fund II L.P. and Icahn Partners Master Fund III L.P. Prior to August 2007, Mr. Icahn conducted this occupation through his entities CCI Onshore Corp. and CCI Offshore Corp since September 2004. Since November 1990, Mr. Icahn has been chairman of the board of Icahn Enterprises G.P. Inc., the general partner of Icahn Enterprises L.P. Icahn Enterprises L.P. is a diversified holding company engaged in a variety of businesses, including investment management, metals, real estate and home fashion. Mr. Icahn was chairman of the board and president of Icahn & Co., Inc., a registered broker- dealer and a member of the National Association of Securities Dealers, from 1968 to 2005. Mr. Icahn has served as chairman of the board and as a director of American Railcar Industries, Inc., a company that is primarily engaged in the business of manufacturing covered hopper and tank railcars, since 1994. From October 1998 through May 2004, Mr. Icahn was the president and a director of Stratosphere Corporation, the owner and operator of the Stratosphere Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas, which, until February 2008, was a subsidiary of Icahn Enterprises L.P. From September 2000 to February 2007, Mr. Icahn served as the chairman of the board of GB Holdings, Inc., which owned an interest in Atlantic Coast Holdings, Inc., the owner and operator of The Sands casino in Atlantic City until November 2006. Mr. Icahn has been chairman of the board and a director of XO Holdings, Inc., a telecommunications services provider, since February 2006, and of its predecessor from January 2003 to February 2006. Mr. Icahn has served as a Director of Cadus Corporation, a company engaged in the ownership and licensing of yeast-based drug discovery technologies since July 1993. In May 2005, Mr. Icahn became a director of Blockbuster Inc., a provider of in-home movie rental and game entertainment. In October 2005, Mr. Icahn became a director of WestPoint International, Inc., a manufacturer of bed and bath home fashion products. In September 2006, Mr. Icahn became a director of ImClone Systems Incorporated, a biopharmaceutical company, and since October 2006 has been the chairman of the board of ImClone. In August 2007, Mr. Icahn became a director of WCI Communities, Inc., a homebuilding company, and since September 2007 has been the chairman of the board of WCI. In December 2007, Mr. Icahn became a director of Federal-Mogul Corporation, a supplier of automotive products, and since January 2008 has been the chairman of the board of Federal-Mogul. In April 2008, Mr. Icahn became a director of Motricity, Inc., a privately-held company that provides mobile content services and solutions. Mr. Icahn received his B.A. from Princeton University.

Keith A. Meister

Since March 2006, Keith Meister has served as Principal Executive Officer and Vice Chairman of the Board of Icahn Enterprises G.P. Inc., the general partner of Icahn Enterprises L.P., a diversified holding company engaged in a variety of businesses, including investment management, metals, real estate and home fashion. Since November 2004, Mr. Meister has been a Managing Director of Icahn Capital LP, the entity through which Carl C. Icahn manages third party private investment funds. Since June 2002, Mr. Meister has served as senior investment analyst of High River Limited Partnership, an entity primarily engaged in the business of holding and investing in securities. Mr. Meister also serves on the boards of directors of the following companies: XO Holdings, Inc., a telecommunications company; WCI Communities, Inc., a homebuilding company; Federal-Mogul Corporation, a supplier of automotive products; and Motorola, Inc., a mobile communications company. With respect to each company mentioned above, Carl C. Icahn, directly or indirectly, either (i) controls such company or (ii) has an interest in such company through the ownership of securities. Mr. Meister received an A.B. in government, cum laude, from Harvard College in 1995.

Edward H. Meyer

Mr. Meyer serves as Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Ocean Road Advisors, Inc., an investment management company. From 1970 to 2006, he served as Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President of Grey Global Group, Inc., a multi-billion dollar global advertising and marketing agency. Mr. Meyer serves as a Director of Harman International Industries, Inc., Ethan Allen Interiors, Inc., National CineMedia, Inc. and NRDC Acquisition Corp. Mr. Meyer holds a B.A. in Economics from Cornell University.

Brian S. Posner

Brian S. Posner is a private investor. From 2005 through March 2008, he served as Chief Executive Officer and co-Chief Investment Officer of ClearBridge Advisors LLC (and its predecessor company, CAM North America), an asset management company based in New York with approximately $90 billion in assets and a wholly owned subsidiary of Legg Mason Inc. Prior to ClearBridge Advisors, he was a co-Founder and the Managing Partner of Hygrove Partners LLC, a hedge fund company that was formed in 2000. Prior to ClearBridge Advisors and Hygrove Partners, he served as a Portfolio Manager and an Analyst, first at Fidelity Investments from 1987 to 1996 and then at Warburg Pincus Asset Management/Credit Suisse Asset Management from 1997 to 1999. At Warburg Pincus Asset Management/Credit Suisse Asset Management he was a Managing Director and served as the Senior Investment Manager of the Value Equity Group, co-Portfolio Manager of the Warburg Pincus Growth & Income Fund, and Portfolio Manager of the Warburg Pincus Institutional Value Fund and the Warburg Pincus Trust, Growth and Income Fund. Prior to the acquisition of Warburg Pincus Asset Management ("WPAM") by Credit Suisse Asset Management in July 1999, he was co-Chief Investment Officer, Director of Research, Chairman of the Global Asset Allocation Committee, and a member of the Executive Operating Committee at WPAM. At Fidelity Investments, he was the Portfolio Manager of the Fidelity Equity Income II Fund from 1992 to 1996 and the Fidelity Value Fund from 1990 to 1992. He also managed the Select Life Insurance, Select Property Casualty Insurance and Select Energy Portfolios. From 1987 to 1990, he was an Oil, Insurance, and Financial Services Analyst. From August 2000 to April 2003 he served on the Board of Directors for Sotheby's Holdings, Inc. He currently a member of the Board of Trustees at Northwestern University and the Board of Visitors for the Weinberg College of Arts and Sciences at Northwestern University. Mr. Posner received his undergraduate degree in history from Northwestern University in 1983 and his M.B.A. in finance from the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business in 1987.

Robert K. Shaye

Robert Shaye is Co-Chairman and Co-CEO of New Line Cinema. As the Founder of New Line Cinema and a filmmaker himself, Robert Shaye has spent more than 40 years developing and distributing films that reflect a wide array of cultural movements, creating new paradigms for the motion picture business, and most importantly, entertaining millions of moviegoers. Since he founded New Line in 1967, Shaye has guided the company's growth from a privately-held art film distributor to one of the entertainment industry's leading independent studios and a veritable box office force. He has been involved in such films as The Lord of the Rings trilogy, Rush Hour, Austin Powers and Seven. A University of Michigan graduate with a degree in business administration and a J.D. degree from Columbia University Law School, Shaye is also a Fulbright Scholar, member of the New York State Bar, and serves on the Board of Trustees of the Motion Picture Pioneers, and the American Film Institute.

每次聽到這種說法，我都忍不住想笑。

油電價漲足或許立意是良好的。因為他們「要消除民眾的預期心理」。不要讓民眾以為之後價格還會繼續漲。聽起來好像不錯。

但是問題在於，漲多少才是「漲足」？

大家都知道，這波通貨膨脹是因為原物料上漲開始引起的。各種基礎商品都在上漲的時候，所有相關的物料也都跟著上漲。不管是做麵包的麵粉、養豬的飼料、生產器械的金屬，或是用在運輸的油料，通通都漲。所以油電價當然也必須跟著漲。

但是問題來了。政府怎麼知道商品市場會漲到哪裡？如果他們不知道高點何在，又怎麼知道漲多少是「一次漲足」？

我還記得大約十年前，原油期貨一桶大約才 20 美金。那時候有些分析師認為，原油庫存不足，油價即將上漲。漲到哪裡？「大概是 $25 - $30 之間，」他說。少數分析師那時候說會漲到一桶 $50，被大家認為是不可能的「天價」。

現在呢？一桶破百不說，還漲到 $115 去了。誰知道高點在哪裡？

最近許多原物料期貨，包括穀物、貴重金屬都出現大幅回檔。因此商品期貨泡沫化的言論又開始發酵。但是大家沒想到的是，基礎商品的特性和一般商品不同。一般市場上，如果麵包缺貨，工廠只要多生產一些麵包拿來賣就好了。如果今天有什麼網路商機，幾個人租幾台電腦就可以開始做網路生意。但是如果今天石油不夠怎麼辦？鉛礦不夠怎麼辦？

你不可能憑空變兩桶石油出來，不是嗎？從探勘油礦、發現蘊藏，到實際開採出來的時間，一般預計是十五到二十年。包括鉛礦金礦等金屬，也多半如此。你覺得穀物生產會比金屬快嗎？反正多種一些就好了對不對？對不起，世界上沒辦法短時間產生這麼多可耕地。生產力的提升必須藉助品種改良才行。菲律賓的國際稻米研究組織估計，新品種的稻米從開始研究到可以商業量產，時間大約是十年到十五年。好像快不了多少，對不對？

那在商品還沒生產出來的時間內，會發生什麼事情？根據簡單的經濟學供需原理，大家會針對這些必須品爭相提高價格搶購。於是價格就會被不斷推高。

那麼，我們 520 以後要漲多少才是漲足？當然，技術上並不困難。原油現在一桶 $115 左右，你可以大幅高估，比方說拿一桶 $500 來估算，那大概就可以「確實的消除民眾預期心理」了。但是這種作法絕對會被批評為橫徵暴歛，而且對政治人物來說絕對是票房毒藥，是不太可能實行的。不過，捨此之外，有什麼其他估價方式可以「一次漲足」？我還真的滿好奇的。

到現在，我每次想到「520 之後，油電價一次漲足」這種說法，都還是會忍不住想笑。

至少是暫時失望的。

馬英九當選了，股市紅盤慶祝，外資買股瘋狂。翻開報紙，股民一片歡欣雀躍，許多人說，「不怕套牢，反正現在的套不是套，台股要等著上萬點了！」

(假想一下可能的對話...)

真的是這樣嗎？為什麼台股要上萬點了？

「因為兩岸要三通了啊。」

那為什麼三通以後，台股就會上萬點？

「你好笨喔，我跟你說啦，等我們跟大陸三通以後，大陸的觀光客都會來，然後台灣的企業都可以過去投資，對台灣當然是好的啦。台灣大賺其錢以後，台股不上萬點也難哪！」

那為什麼大陸願意跟我們三通？就算是三通以後，大陸的觀光客跑來的話，我們有哪些旅遊景點招待他們？我們交通幹線可以容納大量的觀光客嗎？如果容納不下，來的觀光客數目受到限制的話，對經濟又有什麼幫助呢？

「...」(默然以對)

請不要誤會，我不是反對三通。我也覺得三通早通比晚通好。但是，大陸人又不是笨蛋，憑什麼你說不通就不通，你說通就馬上通？為什麼李登輝、陳水扁加起來讓大陸吃了十二年的閉門羹，現在大陸卻要做這個球給馬英九？大陸政府也不是不知道台灣在等著賺他們的錢，幹嘛要把錢送給台灣賺，不順勢多凹一些政治籌碼？

那如果三通刺激台灣經濟之路不會那麼順遂的話，股市要怎麼瞬間飛躍萬點大關？更不用說即使三通以後，觀光客來台灣的交通住宿是否能夠容納等配套問題了。

[註] 今天寫這篇，是因為收到 stealth 轉寄一篇陶冬寫的文章。我查了一下，原文應該出自這裡。不過大陸網站在台灣看難免比較慢，我把原文照引如下。基本上的立論我是很同意的：台灣對三通和三通所造成的經濟前景太樂觀了些。

台灣市場對總統選舉過度樂觀

　　經濟與政治難分家，在兩岸關係上更是如此。

　　台灣民眾矚目於三月二十二日的總統大選，希望政局的改變，能夠帶來經濟的轉運，帶來兩岸關係的轉機。台灣經濟的轉型，以及最終收入與就業的改善，很大程度上取決於兩岸關係能否走出死胡同。今年一月立委選舉後的股市急升，反映出市場求變的心態和對轉型的信心；三通股一馬當先，則反映市場對兩岸關係迅速改善充滿期望。

　　總統府易主，是對過去八年行政政策的一種了結，可能帶來新的思維、新的政策、新的希望。如果馬英九當選，更會帶來近年罕見的行政、立法上的一致，無疑有利於新政策的推出、執行。

　　無論馬英九還是謝長廷當選，筆者認為兩岸關係都會揭開新的一頁。台灣海峽兩岸即使沒有蜜月期，也會有一個觀察期、適應期，雙方在觀望中調整，在調整中試探，在試探中適應。「聽其言、觀其行」，應該是北京的既定立場。適當地伸出橄欖枝，是自然的，但是指望北京熱烈擁抱台北新政權，則是天真的、不現實的。其實北京對馬英九並不信任。馬英九並非連戰，與中國既無淵源，又少共鳴，其過去之所言、所行，令北京有一種說不清的不安。謝長廷也非陳水扁，北京對謝的務實求變是有期待的，但是以「觀其行」起勢也在所難免——陳水扁當初也曾承諾「四不一沒有」。

　　世界上沒有免費的午餐。台灣如果認為只要自己願意打開大門，大陸便會奉上黃金白銀，則未免過於天真。在北京眼裡，三通在二十年前是橄欖枝，十年前意味著通商，今天則等於送錢。兩岸之間長期進行著單向交流，台灣源源不斷地向大陸輸送著資金、技術、人才——心甘情願地，並從中獲利。

　　今天所謂三通，是大陸資金、遊客進入台灣，基本上是大陸給台灣實惠，為台灣經濟輸血。這層互動的主導者是中國政府，而非大陸的企業或遊客，很難不打上政治的烙印。三通是大陸的籌碼，經濟上的實惠必然和政治上的互動聯繫在一起，北京希望以此建立起兩岸之間長期的、不可逆轉的良性互動和政治穩定。在沒有做到這一點前，打雷估計多過下雨，大方針易定，細節落實則可能大不易。

　　說到細節，台灣政府中瞭解大陸、瞭解北京政府的人才奇缺。多少年來政府之間缺少起碼的溝通渠道，對於不同政府部門背後的利益淵源更是知之甚少。如此情況下，台灣與大陸打交道，便好像在黑屋內亂摸，不得要領。筆者相信，政府之間關於細節的談判，時間會拖得很長，一夜間成事更是不可能的。

　　香港於一九九七年回歸，真正受惠於「中國因素」則是二○○三年以後的事，是在香港歷經ＳＡＲＳ和政治危機之後的事。港府官員經常私下抱怨，與北京高官手握了，影照了，最高官員滿口表示合作，但是到了具體部門，香港官員連拍哪一個政府的門都不清楚，至於不同部門之間的利益糾葛則更是一無所知。換言之，上層的承諾難以落實到部門，至於項目細節的推進更是舉步維艱。港府官員至少花了五～六年時間，才摸出與北京衙門打交道的路數、竅門，雙方合作才變得順利。兩岸官場上所需要相互摸索的時間，只會更長不會更短。

　　台灣的金融業並不發達，大陸企業不會大規模利用台灣的資本平台。坊間寄以厚望的大陸資金大量湧入，筆者認為也難在近期成事。大陸的ＱＤＩＩ進入某市場前，必須與當地政府簽訂條約，在台灣主權定位這個問題上有繞不開的障礙，何況中國資金目前關心的是美歐市場。無論是主權基金還是巨型國企，筆者看不到它們入主台灣公司的強烈興趣。台灣缺少大陸資金最感興趣的要素——資源、金融、技術、品牌。

　　更重要的是，兩岸關係並不穩定，總統官邸的主人四年一選，天空的顏色隨時可能由藍變綠，大陸投資隨時可能因變天而進退兩難，因此在目前環境下很難指望中國政府在針對台灣的大型併購上大力倡導、積極推動。當然不排除個人熱錢流入台灣房地產，不過這也未必是短期的事。

　　比較現實的是旅遊業。台北小吃、故宮博物館、日月潭，對大陸遊客都有吸引力。不過除此之外的景點選擇好像並不多。台灣沒有香港的繁華塵囂、布吉的海灘陽光、巴黎的文化情調，台北之外的城市與大陸二、三線城市相比其實差別不大。

台灣目前每日允許一千名大陸遊客入境，一年的上限為卅六萬五千人，這與香港、澳門每年各自接納二千萬以上大陸人士相比，實有天壤之差。以目前的入境上限，大陸遊客對台灣ＧＤＰ的真正拉動，不會超過○'○五％。即使上限向上加十倍，對經濟的實質貢獻其實也十分有限。

　　面對大陸遊客入台的商機，台灣似乎炒作多、想像多，不過實際動作並不多。旅遊業要做的不僅是建幾家酒店，而可能需要在旅遊服務業作許多功夫，要設立面向大陸遊客的購物中心，推出生態、海洋旅遊，打造充滿台灣風清的民俗節目。海洋公園、廣東道、星光大道的變化，折射出香港旅遊業在吸引大陸遊客上所作的努力。經濟轉型，不僅是政府立場上的改變，同時必須伴隨著民間的努力、調整和創新。

　　台灣這塊招牌必須珍惜，旅遊業的準備務必充分。第一步走得不好，口碑不佳，則以後步步受制，香港迪斯尼盲目自大，準備不足所產生的前車之鑑，不可不察。

　　三月二十二日可能是台灣經濟出現轉機的一日。但是，經濟轉型需要時間，更需要努力，三通實難一蹴而就。市場似乎將總統大選當成台灣經濟轉型的速效藥，股市更偷步向上。在筆者看來這種觀點過度樂觀，甚至有些天真。

聲明：我對保險並不熟稔。下面是我依照一般常識做的判斷，若有錯誤還請四方先進不吝指教。

今天收到一封轉寄信，標題是「我終於幫您找到 158% 的定存了！」。看到標題滿腹狐疑的我，想說世界上怎麼可能有這種事情？一看內文才發現，原來是台灣人壽推的新金融商品。保證收益 158%。

我想了想，回了封簡單的信。

我雖然對保險不很了解，但是我確定即使是世界上最頂尖的避險基金經理人，都沒辦法保證提供 58% 的年報酬率，然後自己還能賺錢。即便是索羅斯或是巴菲特都不可能。

這種說法如果對最頂尖的避險基金能夠成立，那麼對保險商品更應該成立。因為保險商品追求的本來就不是利潤極大化，而是付出一部分溢價來沖銷風險。

我雖然不知道他們為甚麼可以聲稱提供 158% 的報酬，但是我確定一定還有東西是他們 eDM 裡面沒有告訴你的。如果你正在考慮投資這個商品的話，那你應該先做功課，搞清楚他們沒告訴你的是東西 - 他們要怎麼給你 58% 的報酬率然後還能賺錢？

我推測，或許是這樣的情況：

1. 158% 的報酬率不是年報酬率，而是一次性的最終報酬。
2. 這個投資方案多半有鎖定時間限制。或許十年，或許二十年。
3. 也就是說，他們可以現在跟你拿一百塊，十年或是二十年約滿了以後還你 158 塊，達成他們原本聲稱的 158% 報酬率的承諾。
4. 但是他們沒告訴你的是，我們未來面對的是停滯性通膨的時代。現在跟你拿的一百塊，未來即使約定期滿，還你 158%，多半還是不夠本，或是勉強夠本而已。換句話說，「158% 的定存」，不是甜頭而是苦頭。綁約的時間越長，這個報酬越苦！

這些推測雖然是我在黑暗中瞎猜，但是我相信除了綁約時間有差異、未來通膨的估計數字可能有出入以外，應該和真相八九不離十。

保險不是不好，保險是很有用的東西。但是在買保險以前，應該先搞清楚，你付出的是錢，買來的是別人替你處理風險的服務。換句話說，應該先弄清楚自己花的價格和買到的服務，而不要被天花亂墜的數字和報酬率沖昏了頭。

希望這封信，對其他人也有幫助。

上次看了半天，一直在考慮只是暫時整理還是回檔將至？現在看來答案已經揭曉：原來只是整理而已。

這波這樣繼續往上噴，天曉得下個壓力區會在哪。也只能順勢繼續做囉。

「趨勢沒有被證明反轉以前，必須假定趨勢依然存在。」

老師說過的話果然要聽啊。

Is this just a consolidation? Or is a drawback coming?

We'll see in a few days.

我本來看到新聞嚇一跳，以為盤中這個新聞就出來了。如果真的是這樣，那麼今天大盤還可以漲三百點的話，觀點應該就要修正一下。還好仔細看了一下，應該是盤後的消息。

市場對這個新聞有什麼反應，看明天開盤就知道了。不過我可不希望它在這裡反應太兇啊，我希望大盤還能彈高一點再下手...

• MSCI季調整 微降台股權重
• 中印吸金 MSCI微降台股權重

今天在 San Jose 旅館剛起床，到處都在講的新聞就是微軟提議用 446 億美金 (44.6 billion) 收購 Yahoo。消息一出，Yahoo 股價開盤應聲大漲接近五成，來到 28 元的水準。



市場顯然十分喜歡這個 bid，也表示華爾街對 Yahoo 只靠自己的 restructure 和奮鬥是否能夠翻身已經不再具備任何耐心。由這種股價反映看來，華爾街顯然希望有外部的 executive 進來，或者尤其是微軟這種具有戰略性角色的公司來作收購。

這種股價曲線，看在眼裡，實在感觸不少。現在 Yahoo 已經淪落到即使股價漲了 50% 都還只有 28 元的水準了。在各界都對 Yahoo 喪失信心的時候，微軟的收購是否能夠替 Yahoo 重新帶來新生命？成敗當然還在未定之天。可是有希望總比沒希望好，金融市場總是希望有夢想。而夢想正是 Yahoo 沒辦法提供的。

如果你問我，我覺得 Yahoo 是否應該答應？我會說，"the short answer is yes"。
你想問更詳細一點的話，我會說，"the long answer is a bit longer, but it's still yes"。

Thanks to stealth for the info :p

之前期交所已經推出過美金結算的黃金期貨了，不過當時也說過，要一邊考量匯差做起來實在很討厭，後來市場反應也是平平。現在終於有台幣結算的黃金期貨了，以後還可以有盤後交易，交易起來更方便啦！

看來才剛推出，目前交易的多半屬於試單性質。不知道之後這個商品是否可以熱絡的起來啊。只是槓桿高達 20 倍，操作的人自己資金控管真的要小心就是了 :p

詳細的黃金期貨資訊，可以參考：

• 新台幣計價黃金期貨契約

大師說話了。正所謂喊水會結凍，不管信不信他的言論，整個市場都得瞧瞧大師說些什麼。索羅斯在金融時報寫了一篇評論，談的是最近的熱門話題 - Market Crisis。看來運用的仍然是他核心的 reflextivity 理論建構出的 boom-bust cycle，來解讀現在的市場狀況，以及信用市場不可避免逐漸緊縮的問題。

The danger is that the resulting political tensions, including US protectionism, may disrupt the global economy and plunge the world into recession or worse.

大家的看法看來都差不多。只看看效應什麼時候逐漸展開，又會發酵到什麼程度了...

不過我倒是突然想到，這陣子馬英九謝長廷都狂拋經濟利多議題，每個人都想表現的好像自己選上以後台灣人每個都會口袋麥克麥克一樣。問題是我們接下來幾年面對的世界經濟局勢如此險峻，他們喊震天價響的口號到底有多少效果，可實在讓我不太有信心。但是我對歷任行政院長喊的口號倒是信心十足 - 絕對不可能實現。從連戰的「台灣競爭力 Top 5」 以來，張俊雄的 「Taiwan Double」、蘇貞昌的「大溫暖」，拋棄式的口號用過即丟，過往紀錄輝煌無比。我想這次由總統候選人喊口號，大概也是差不多吧。

Thanks to stealth for the link ;)

Well，大家都知道，經濟部商業司有個可以查詢工商登記的地方。當年找到「科高」也是多虧這個查詢網站。今天下午一時好奇，想翻查一些網路公司登記的營業項目不曉得都列些什麼。順手打「雅虎」下去查，跟以前一樣有很多其他阿里不打的公司用「雅虎」登記公司名稱。沒想到這時候突然發現...


(你可以點這裡看大圖) 啥？Yahoo! 奇摩什麼時候變成「香港商雅虎資訊」了？而且英文名稱還是「YAHOO! TAIWAN HOLDINGS LIMITED」，是 Yahoo! 奇摩轉型當控股公司了嗎？@_@ 應該是被不知道哪個怪香港人註冊的公司名吧？當下立刻點下去看登記的資料：


(一樣，點這裡可以看大圖) 哇塞，還真的耶。連公司地址都和正牌的「雅虎國際資訊」一樣，而且「訴訟及非訴訟代理人姓名」也確實是... ！那現在的 Yahoo! 奇摩網站，在台灣到達率超過98%，到底是「雅虎國際資訊」呢，還是「香港商雅虎資訊」才對？誰搞的清楚？

其實哪一個才對我也不太 care。我比較好奇的是，他們這樣轉變的背後意義是什麼呢？之前我曾經聽說過一些公司，為了處理勞退舊制和新制的問題，乾脆成立一個新公司，把舊公司的員工「解雇」，再由新公司重新 hire 這樣。可是雅虎奇摩在之前並沒有這樣做，反而是現在改頭換面變成香港公司，不禁讓人直覺聯想... 難道是準備趁香港股市正熱，到香港上市嗎？

當然這只是我的胡亂猜測。但是如果是真的，這一著可也真不錯。反正現在恆生指數熱成這樣，眼看著阿里巴巴這種網站都可以在香港上市當天立刻漲三倍，本益比超過 100 倍的時候，大股東跟著眼紅心動恐怕是難免的。只是，這個猜測到底是離譜到不行，還是稍微沾到一點邊，就只有天才知道了....

今天無意間看到保鑣兄的 blog 上面有一篇「花都巴黎，要變身國際金融中心」。看到標題，想到這幾年杜拜的興起、香港的繁華，以及過往十年來台灣的淪落，很有一點感覺。

巴黎有這種野心是可以理解的。現在，大概沒有一個國家不希望自己境內有個都市可以成為國際金融中心。因為只要有這樣一個都市，對國內的就業率提升、國民所得上升、國際能見度提高，都是非常有幫助的事情 (詳右圖)。放眼全球，只要在金融界稍有份量的公司，沒有一個不在國際金融中心設點。以目前來說，所謂的「國際金融中心」，當然是指紐約和倫敦，以及區域性的金融中心如杜拜和香港。

但是巴黎想成為金融中心，就做得到嗎？當然不見得，其中還有許多障礙有待克服。成為金融中心不僅僅是稅率優惠而已。有許多基礎建設方面的問題。以紐約和倫敦來說，兩個都市共有的優勢是：

1. 國際航班十分流暢
   
2. 基礎電信網路相當完整
3. 英語母語
4. 金融法規完善
5. 交易所健全，流動性高
6. 人才庫又深又廣，可以招攬世界各地的人才
7. 休閒娛樂多，金融界的 top players 多半也很注重娛樂生活。
   

從上面的列表來看，金融法規只不過是其中一項法國需要改善的問題而已。法國人拋的下自尊不說法語講英文嗎？英文可是財務世界的標準語言。法國的學校程度參差不齊，最近才不斷有在討論想改善教育制度。法國提供的人才能夠撐起金融中心所需要的人力嗎？如果不行，巴黎能夠吸引世界各國的優秀人才前往工作嗎？

我並不是說巴黎無望成為國際金融中心。但是這些是很明顯可見的絆腳石。如果這些絆腳石搬不開，那麼巴黎的要成為金融中心當然是障礙重重。

台灣大概十年前，連戰還在當行政院長的時候，也曾經喊過「亞太金融中心」的口號。那時候受到洛桑管理學院報告指出台灣國際競爭力下降的影響，口號喊的震耳欲聾。不只金融中心，連「亞太營運中心」、「競爭力全球 top 5」都喊出來了。那個時候，台灣也「想」當國際金融中心。

想歸想，台灣做了些什麼呢？誰記得？誰知道？連戰之後，張俊雄在前任行政院長任內也喊過「Taiwan Double」，說要讓台灣國民所得倍增。蘇貞昌也喊過「大溫暖」。然後呢？有什麼實際作為嗎？我看不到。

我倒是知道，以前的高雄港是全世界第三大貨運港。但是現在的高雄港，港邊的咖啡座比貨輪還多。我們的政府果然很環保，十年之內就把高雄港從貨運港變成觀光港口了。[1] 這陣子全球散裝航運景氣大好，但是高雄港有跟著得利嗎？也許你可以問問看高雄開貨櫃車的司機，看看他們最近生意好不好？跟以前相比如何？

「想」和「做到」一直都是不一樣的。每個男人都希望又帥又多金。問題是想歸想，你做了些什麼嗎？

Update 10/10:
[1] refer to: 高雄港排名持續滑落

Economist 上禮拜編了一份很好玩的「大麥克指數」。基本上是拿各個國家麥當勞賣的 Big Mac 的售價來作比較，看看各個國家的麥當勞售價，和他們實際換算的該國匯率是否有差別。(是啊，我知道很多人都做過這種「用麥當勞售價來比較物價差異」的簡單調查 :p)

由表中可知，中國大陸 (-58%) 和香港 (-55%)、埃及 (-51%) 都似乎有匯率嚴重低估之嫌。台灣的 (-33%) 似乎也有這樣的影子。

圖表貼在後面：



Source: Economist - The Big Mac Index

昨天的新聞了，但是今天才有空寫。

在 Venturebeat、紐約時報 和華爾街日報都看到這個消息，中國政府宣布會買下一部份重量級私募基金 Blackstone 的股權，大約價值三十億美金 (將近一千億台幣)。如果根據這邊 Blackstone 準備 IPO 的時候各界估計的釋股水準，那麼中國政府這次買下的股權大概是 7.5% - 8% 左右吧。

Blackstone 是最負盛名、也是第一個準備上市的重量級私募基金。

這陣子，就在中國大陸正式表態他們不願意把所有的外匯存底都拿去買美國債券以後，各界就在紛紛揣測大陸的 1.2 兆美元外匯存底到底會被分散到哪些投資組合上面 - 因為毫無疑問的，這麼多錢不管買什麼就會漲什麼。水漲船就高。

沒想到這次的標的居然會是 Blackstone。下一個呢？

這幾天最震動華爾街的大事，大概就是著名的私募基金 Blackstone 準備上市了。(SEC filing here)

先不論釋出的股票數量和價格多少，光是 Blackstone 的名頭就會讓人眼睛為之一亮。Fortune 在前幾期才把 Blackstone CEO Stephen Schwarzman 稱為 "Wall Street's man of the moment"，並且在該期把 Blackstone 評為私募基金中規模最大的第一名。當然私募基金的資金外界很難揣測，但是毫無疑問 Blackstone 絕對是最具份量的玩家之一。而且這次釋出的股票 IPO 大約佔了 $4 billion，如果照一般外界預測，這次只有釋出 10% 股權的話，那麼 Blackstone 的市值就會達到 $400 億美金的水位，大約一兆三千億台幣。

私募基金上市最近好像蔚為風潮。Fortress 上個月也才成功上市募資，但是像 Blackstone 規模這麼大的 PE 要上市還是頭一遭。(另一個重量級 PE，KKR 在歐洲上市的不是母體，而是子基金) 這個新聞背後不免讓人聯想：「如果私募基金賺這麼大，又沒有資金需求的話，為什麼他們需要上市？難道是要趁最近當紅炒股價換現嗎 」？XD

Anyway，總之看來才剛過完 60 歲奢華生日派對的 Stephen Schwarzman，還可以繼續佔據新聞版面一段時間就是了 :p

Blackstone files for $4 billion IPO
Blackstone's IPO
Is Blackstone's IPO contradicting ?
Blackstone 的 SEC filing

日月光和 AMD，大概是近來半導體業最熱的兩個新聞了吧？

在上次私募基金 (Private Equity) 傳出凱雷想要收購日月光之後，AMD 也傳出成為私募基金相中的標的之一。由圖中可以看出，昨天消息傳出後，市場反應造成股價大漲。(新聞可以看 Forbes 或是 Reuters 的報導)

AMD 才在一月揭露 2006 Q4 的財報，虧了 $574M，加上對前景不佳的預測，造成股價難有起色。現在傳出 PE 對他有興趣，不知道是真？還是假？可以預見的是，已經紅透了的 PE，還會繼續造成不少話題就是了。

啊, Google finance 出了呢

從以前的 search stock quote, 現在的服務感覺功能增加不少
除了報價, flash scrollable 的盤中走勢圖, 新聞消息以外,
也有公司基本資料、財務報表、相關 (同業?) 公司資訊等等

滿特別的呢... 可惜大概沒有 realtime stock quotes 吧?

不知道台灣這裡會不會有一樣的服務推出來咧?

Google Rolls Out Finance Site
Google Finance

很有趣的一張圖。

記得第一次看到的時候, 好像是接近 2004 年總統大選前後吧? 那時候只覺得這張圖很傳神, 非常有趣。

但是那時候, 我沒有用 flickr, 也沒有寫 blog 的習慣, 因此當時的圖也沒保留下來。現在重新找到這張圖, 當然不能錯過啦~~ 如果圖太小看不清楚的話，這裡有原圖。

不曉得這波會回到哪邊...

既期待有 490 的黃金檢, 又怕經過五年的上漲, 這波回檔恐怕不只半年... 金融市場果然很容易讓人迷惘啊...

先看他怎麼著陸再說吧。